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Enhancing predictive modelling for sustainable salmon aquaculture

Expanding NewDEPOMOD, a tool for predicting seabed impacts of salmon farming

Accurate predictive modelling is vital for the sustainable growth of Scotland’s aquaculture sector. As salmon farming expands to more energetic and dispersive sites, reliable tools are needed to assess environmental impacts and unlock capacity while protecting marine ecosystems. NewDEPOMOD is a model for predicting benthic (seabed) impacts of salmon farming and is central to regulatory decision-making and industry planning.

ExPAND was launched to ensure NewDEPOMOD remains relevant and fit for purpose in a rapidly evolving sector. Unlike previous ‘off-the-shelf’ versions, this project created a collaborative user group of regulators, industry, and academics to guide ongoing improvements.

Valued at just under £395k, the project partners were Scottish Association for Marine Science (SAMS), Salmon Scotland and SEPA (in an advisory role).

Goals included refining the model’s accuracy, incorporating new scientific knowledge, and aligning outputs with Scotland’s regulatory standards. Achievements include:

  • Software development: enhancements to improve reliability and efficiency, supported by advances in computing.
  • User support: a comprehensive, regularly updated user guide and training workshops to build modelling expertise.
  • Regulatory integration: a Scotland-specific module incorporating SEPA’s Environmental Quality Standards and new impact measures.
  • Scientific insights: studies on environmental factors influencing benthic outcomes, improving confidence in predictions.

This collaborative approach has strengthened links between stakeholders, ensuring the model reflects best practice and emerging science. It has also facilitated knowledge sharing through a user forum and training events, improving the quality of regulatory submissions.

NewDEPOMOD is now the preferred tool for assessing seabed impacts and is expected to be adopted globally, supporting Scotland’s ambition to grow salmon production sustainably by 2030. A follow-on project, ExPAND in2 the Future, will continue this work.

The full title of this project is ‘ExPAND: Expanding environments, physics, and accuracy in NewDEPOMOD’.

Read the case study