Modelling system boosts Scotland’s readiness for marine hazards

A major upgrade to Scotland’s ability to forecast and respond to marine environmental hazards.

Northern Scotland, Orkney and Shetland are home to some of Europe’s most dynamic marine environments. However, issues such as Harmful Algal blooms (HABs), extreme weather, and complex circulation patterns can jeopardise fish health and shellfish safety in the region. 

Project partners Scottish Association for Marine Science (SAMS), Scottish Sea Farms, and Scotland’s Rural College (SRUC) - supported by SAIC -  have helped increase the ability to forecast and respond to marine environmental hazards with a new ocean modelling system called NORSCOMS. This extends an earlier project on early-warning capabilities for harmful algal blooms (HABs) to the northern mainland, Orkney, and Shetland.

Traditional forecasting models have struggled to capture the complex coastal conditions in the region. NORSCOMS changes that by offering detailed, near-real-time forecasts of ocean currents, temperature, salinity, and more. This allows for more accurate predictions of HABs, helping fish and shellfish farmers take early action to protect stock and maintain food safety.

Beyond HABs, the model can be used to track sea lice dispersal, jellyfish movement, pollutants, and to inform decisions about disease risk. It also links with fish health models to help predict and manage gill health issues.

This work ensures Scotland remains at the forefront of predictive aquaculture science and coastal hazard management. 

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